Canon DSLR Timeline Speculation

I’ve been asked a few times in the last couple of days when Canon might be releasing an update to one of their existing digital SLRs. Obviously, I’m no insider. More to the point, after talking publicly about my problems with the 1D Mark III and subsequently going dual system and loving it, Canon’s not likely to tell me bloody anything. That’s OK. We can look at the release record for Canon’s digital SLR product lines and do a bit of armchair speculation. (If you’re impatient, skip right to the summary.)

First off, let’s look at the longest running line in the Canon Digital SLR line up, the x0D series:

• Canon D30, announced 05/2000, shipped 09/2000
• Canon D60, announced 02/2002, 17 months later
• Canon 10D, announced 02/2003, 12 months later
• Canon 20D, announced 08/2004, 18 months later
• Canon 30D, announced 02/2006, 18 months later
• Canon 40D, announced 08/2007, 18 months later
• Canon 50D, announced 08/2008, 12 months later

Except for a fast release of the of the 10D in 2003 and then later the 50D in 2008, the natural cycle is hanging out in the 18 month range. The 50D especially is a bit of an odd duck as it didn’t officially replace the 40D. You can still buy the 40D new. It’ll be interesting to see if the 40D remains in production past February of this year, which would otherwise be its time to bow out. No matter, I’d be highly surprised of there’s a new camera in this line before August of this year. Furthermore, with the economic slow down hitting camera sales, I wouldn’t be surprised at all if the natural cycle asserted itself and Canon doesn’t refresh this line until February of 2010.

Note, I based the period between the D30 and D60 on the shipping of the D30, not the announcement. The D30 was pre-announced by a large margin. On the other hand, the variability in announce and ship dates after the first camera aren’t as important to track, in my book. We’re doing armchair speculation, after all.

Next, let’s look at the Rebel.

• Canon Rebel 300D, announced 08/2003
• Canon Rebel 350D (XT), announced 02/2005, 18 months later
• Canon Rebel 400D (XTi), announced 08/2006, 18 months later
• Canon Rebel 450D (XSi), announce 01/2008, 17 months later

That’s about as regular a pattern as you can ask for. It’s pretty obvious that Canon is regularly sorting out what amount of technology they can put into a Rebel at a particular price point and doing it every year and a half. Look for the next one in this line in July or August of this year. As regular as the release cycle has been, I’d almost be willing to put money down on it.

How does the Rebel XS (aka Canon Rebel 1000D, announced 06/2008) fit into this? We’ll, that’s a good question. As the first sub-$500 digital SLR, it could be on a completely different schedule than its big brother. Or, it could be on an alternating schedule so that Canon can have more frequent announcements in the Rebel series. We’ll have to wait and see.

Ok, so that’s the low end. How about the other side of the spectrum and the 1D series?

• Canon 1D, announced 09/2001, shipped 12/2001
• Canon 1D mkII, announced 01/2004, 37 months later
• Canon 1D mkIIn, announced 08/2005, 19 months later
• Canon 1D mkIII, announced 02/2007, 18 months later, 37 months after the mkII

As with the x0D series, I’m using the shipping date for first model in the series to base later time periods from. Also, it’s important to note that the Mark IIn was a minor update with a larger screen and improved electronics. Thus, the additional notation of the time period between the Mark II and Mark III.

Ignoring the Mark IIn, the 1D series is pretty much on a three year timeline. There are a lot of people—myself included—that would like to see a replacement for the 1D Mark III this year. The focus problem in early 1D Mark III bodies is horrible when you run into it and has left a bad taste in many photographers mouths. On the other hand, it’s my understanding that recent Mark III bodies have seen enough improvements in manufacturing that they are pretty solid machines. Almost seems like there has been a silent 'n' release, if you will.

As much as I’d like to see a new 1D Mark IV this year, I think that Canon will stick to their schedule. If so, it would mean we don’t see the Mark IV until early 2010. If I were betting money, I’d be tempted to double down on this bet because of the economic slowdown.

What about the absolute top of the line? The 1Ds series?

• 1Ds, announced 09/2002, 12 months after the 1D
• 1Ds mkII, announced 09/2004, 24 months later, 8 months after the 1D mkII
• 1Ds mkIII, announced 08/2007, 36 months later, 6 months after the 1D mkIII

With the 1Ds, I’m more interested in the lag time after the 1D than anything else. This is because the two cameras are based off the same general platform. The big difference is found in the size and pixel count of the sensor. And, the interesting thing to note here is that the lag is shrinking a little bit each time. One of these days, both the 1D and 1Ds models of the same generation will be announced together. Will it be the upcoming Mark IV? Maybe. Maybe not. My bet is that if we see a Mark IV come out on schedule in the winter of 2010, the 1Ds version will be announced in the spring.

Finally, what about the 5D? Well, the first version was announced in August of 2005. It’s successor came more than three years later. At this rate, the 5D Mark III will be out in 2011 or 2012.

To summarize: look for a new Rebel xx0D model (a 500D?) in summer. The next x0D (a 60D?) could come between August of this year and February of next. If the 1D Mark IV shows up before 2010, I’ll be seriously surprised. And the 5D Mark II will be state of the art for a long time. In other words, unless you’re looking for a new Rebel or getting a new 5D Mark II, the current line up looks to be set for a while.

I’ll close by pointing out that this is all idle speculation based on nothing more than doing a bit of research and finding patterns in the numbers. I could be wrong with some aspect of these guesses. There’s a dozen different ways you can probably come up with your own predictions. And Canon may have a trick up their sleeves—maybe a new product line even—to shake things up. You never know! I welcome your (polite!) speculation in the comments. In the end, we’ll all find out soon enough.

Oh, and if you’re ready to buy a Canon and don’t mind helping a blogger out, feel free to use one of the Amazon links sprinkled through and through.